Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.816376 0.937414 1.066415 1.213719 1.376835 1.551502 1.752241
2025-03-02 0.600811 0.755185 0.931309 1.145536 1.397404 1.682438 2.027625
2025-03-09 0.471437 0.646810 0.860267 1.135462 1.476810 1.882143 2.395313
2025-03-16 0.364708 0.547697 0.785508 1.110133 1.533930 2.060230 2.754082
2025-03-23 0.301732 0.494192 0.760237 1.142900 1.665779 2.340982 3.262476
2025-03-30 0.229264 0.413762 0.686652 1.101640 1.696186 2.495002 3.623485
2025-04-06 0.179372 0.356696 0.636928 1.086235 1.758818 2.695604 4.060363
2025-04-13 0.137903 0.303807 0.584545 1.059198 1.800905 2.870290 4.474195
2025-04-20 0.112670 0.273180 0.562320 1.074814 1.906143 3.140656 5.038127
2025-04-27 0.089735 0.240955 0.531698 1.072311 1.982402 3.373414 5.562512
2025-05-04 0.073818 0.218697 0.514863 1.090288 2.091841 3.662224 6.185171
2025-05-11 0.060119 0.197262 0.495613 1.101042 2.189518 3.938419 6.803662
2025-05-18 0.045139 0.168257 0.457135 1.074275 2.226271 4.129614 7.317496
2025-05-25 0.031876 0.137916 0.408944 1.021544 2.212041 4.237737 7.709460
2025-06-01 0.024537 0.121346 0.387835 1.019448 2.288279 4.499399 8.359414
2025-06-08 0.018135 0.104255 0.361244 1.001689 2.333257 4.711002 8.940037
2025-06-15 0.014984 0.097290 0.358898 1.036284 2.481380 5.108822 9.846286
2025-06-22 0.010474 0.081404 0.328054 1.001491 2.489401 5.261104 10.350553
2025-06-29 0.007638 0.070608 0.308534 0.989813 2.542174 5.495460 11.003943
2025-07-06 0.005321 0.059967 0.286004 0.966708 2.568282 5.681768 11.582363
2025-07-13 0.004119 0.054690 0.279380 0.982807 2.678490 6.028685 12.453490
2025-07-20 0.003000 0.048378 0.267043 0.981711 2.750724 6.307441 13.215508
2025-07-27 0.002302 0.044357 0.261892 0.999446 2.866211 6.674498 14.149319